Apple is my bet. Closed ecosystem. Interoperability issues. Ego. I think AI will drive simplicity and make interoperability easier, but you have to be willing to play, and Apple isn't.
AMD went through several CEOs after Jerry Sanders' shine wore off (Hector Ruiz, Dirk Meyer, Rory Read) before Lisa Su took over. We're only two CEOs in at Intel post the start of the decline (which I date to about when they failed at 10 nm). Who will be their Lisa Su?
Intel is now trying to do battle with AMD, Nvidia and TSMC all at the same time. The only thing worse would be if they were going after mobile - which they've always sucked at - and trying to take on Qualcomm too. It's no wonder they're not getting anywhere.
Hector Ruiz, though a mediocre executive at both AMD and Motorola Semi before that, was at least "visionary" enough to both purchase ATI (Nvidia's competitor in graphics chips ) and spin-out AMD's fabs into Global Foundries during his tenure. He knew which battle AMD was more likely to succeed at.
What Intel needs now is someone who can see that pouring money into IFS to do battle with TSMC is a futile exercise, and that they'd be better off spinning it out so they can concentrate on fighting the two other formidable competitors. That's going to be hard enough, as it is.
I also agree that the Mag 7 may have peaked or may have lost some fanfare. As far as another company or companies rising up to create competition, I believe the Mag 7 have gotten to the point where they stifle creativity and competition. Hopefully there are some kids in a garage somewhere who will emerge with something new and exciting.
Somewhat like Boeing, only because the US desperately needs an operating foundry as insurance against any disruption in Taiwan. We may all look back on this as a buying opportunity. It probably is not over yet as Intel will be dropped by institutions, indexes, funds and ETF’s on account of the dividend being eliminated.
The USA and the Western world need a foundry other than TSMC in Taiwan
I am under the impression TMSC itself cannot do the same things in a different plant. It is a certitude we will need to go to war, if China moves
Intel's architecture is about 50 yrs old. After so many years as monopolists, they are probably good bean counters and mediocre scientists. This is where the similitude with Boeing ends.
Mixing a foundry and a semi company is non-sense. Let alone it takes a lot more than buying a DUV machine from ASML to compete with TMSC, who in her/his right mind would source her/his superior design from a competitor? Intel should split and assign the stocks to its shareholders
AMD was able to fabricate their own chips albeit at a loss, but Jerry Sanders recognized the cost/benefit of being at risk without the ability if the dilemma would arise. However, when he retired this segment of AMD was sold off, most likely to appease Wall Street and enrich management and shareholders. Beating by a penny, incentivizing via options may work well in the short term but long term it is a fools game. Andy Grove also sounded the alarm bells. I wouldn’t give up on Intel yet. I think their current troubles help or hopefully help to further the acceleration of the wake up call.
This is overly harsh on Gelsinger. Intel is screwed because of the issues in the first 2 paragraphs, not because he is "an uncreative thinker, a weak team manager, and an ego-driven leader who casts himself as the smartest guy in the room". Morale at the company lifted after he came back but that was not sufficient to offset the competitive shift to the benefit of TSM/AMD/NVDA/ARM that began years before he became CEO.
Alphabet is next.
Maybe NVIDIA will not be the next one in line, but its time will come sooner rather than later.
Raptor Lake (13th and 14th GEN Chips, have these reported issues. Source: Fireship_dev)
https://youtu.be/H8LrwI-I_fY?si=nq9m5pss5ZGUlTow
Apple is my bet. Closed ecosystem. Interoperability issues. Ego. I think AI will drive simplicity and make interoperability easier, but you have to be willing to play, and Apple isn't.
TSLA and Phony Stark are next.
AMD went through several CEOs after Jerry Sanders' shine wore off (Hector Ruiz, Dirk Meyer, Rory Read) before Lisa Su took over. We're only two CEOs in at Intel post the start of the decline (which I date to about when they failed at 10 nm). Who will be their Lisa Su?
Intel is now trying to do battle with AMD, Nvidia and TSMC all at the same time. The only thing worse would be if they were going after mobile - which they've always sucked at - and trying to take on Qualcomm too. It's no wonder they're not getting anywhere.
Hector Ruiz, though a mediocre executive at both AMD and Motorola Semi before that, was at least "visionary" enough to both purchase ATI (Nvidia's competitor in graphics chips ) and spin-out AMD's fabs into Global Foundries during his tenure. He knew which battle AMD was more likely to succeed at.
What Intel needs now is someone who can see that pouring money into IFS to do battle with TSMC is a futile exercise, and that they'd be better off spinning it out so they can concentrate on fighting the two other formidable competitors. That's going to be hard enough, as it is.
Dejected & still long at Intel.
Thank you Herb! Have a great weekend!
I also agree that the Mag 7 may have peaked or may have lost some fanfare. As far as another company or companies rising up to create competition, I believe the Mag 7 have gotten to the point where they stifle creativity and competition. Hopefully there are some kids in a garage somewhere who will emerge with something new and exciting.
Intel reminds me of Microsoft under Ballmer.
More like Boeing under the last Nth CEOs
Somewhat like Boeing, only because the US desperately needs an operating foundry as insurance against any disruption in Taiwan. We may all look back on this as a buying opportunity. It probably is not over yet as Intel will be dropped by institutions, indexes, funds and ETF’s on account of the dividend being eliminated.
I think it is a lot worse
The USA and the Western world need a foundry other than TSMC in Taiwan
I am under the impression TMSC itself cannot do the same things in a different plant. It is a certitude we will need to go to war, if China moves
Intel's architecture is about 50 yrs old. After so many years as monopolists, they are probably good bean counters and mediocre scientists. This is where the similitude with Boeing ends.
Mixing a foundry and a semi company is non-sense. Let alone it takes a lot more than buying a DUV machine from ASML to compete with TMSC, who in her/his right mind would source her/his superior design from a competitor? Intel should split and assign the stocks to its shareholders
AMD was able to fabricate their own chips albeit at a loss, but Jerry Sanders recognized the cost/benefit of being at risk without the ability if the dilemma would arise. However, when he retired this segment of AMD was sold off, most likely to appease Wall Street and enrich management and shareholders. Beating by a penny, incentivizing via options may work well in the short term but long term it is a fools game. Andy Grove also sounded the alarm bells. I wouldn’t give up on Intel yet. I think their current troubles help or hopefully help to further the acceleration of the wake up call.
However, your point is well taken.
This is overly harsh on Gelsinger. Intel is screwed because of the issues in the first 2 paragraphs, not because he is "an uncreative thinker, a weak team manager, and an ego-driven leader who casts himself as the smartest guy in the room". Morale at the company lifted after he came back but that was not sufficient to offset the competitive shift to the benefit of TSM/AMD/NVDA/ARM that began years before he became CEO.
TSLA is my bet.
The king is naked
Clearly.
Hmm?
Sad to say, you are spot on! Whither Intel!
This market intelligence is excellent but to expensive for my humble goals , is there anyway to read your thoughts a week later or so for free ???