Well... That's a Wrap!
Plus the biggest mistake investors make and a reminder that common sense still pays.
(If you’re not yet among the growing number of premium subscribers to Herb On the Street and my Red Flag Alerts, and wonder why you should subscribe, I explain right here. Prices for new customers are going up to $300/year and $50/month on January 1. Thanks for supporting my work.)
Dear Subscribers,
I began the year co-starting a business, and midway through swiftly exited – stage right! – to focus exclusively on what I love to do most: Writing.
I’ve lived my professional life by rising to the level of my incompetence for a specific reason: If you don’t, you’ll never know how far you can go. But more importantly, it’s one way to find what you truly love to do, which in my case is a reversion to the mean of what I’ve done for decades.
I’m thrilled with the number of readers that have upgraded to a premium subscription in the four months since I started charging. If you haven’t yet, remember: prices are rising January 1.
My existing Red Flag Alerts list – posted at the tail end of this for premium subscribers – has proven to be a great proxy for a market run amok, with some names making wild swings. Yet, since I started the Red Flag Alerts in May 2023 – whether up, down or sideways – most have remained in the red throughout… and almost all have lagged the market.
And that’s the point and the main driver of my red flags: With thousands of stocks to choose from, there are better options – depending, of course, on the type of investor/trader/gambler you are. I explain more here:
Going forward, I expect to make additional changes, including a rebrand as well as possibly adding a new tier that would include some level of access. (I welcome all feedback!)
Highlights, Lowlights
This year’s top red flags – all full reports available in my archives – include Savers Value Village, Symbotic, AeroVironment and Erie Indemnity.
Since the list’s inception, the hands-down best has been Enviva (-100%), but other standouts include ChargePoint, Enphase and SolarEdge.
There have also been some exceptional green flags, including AppLovin’, which is up nearly 500% since I first wrote about it in February; Select Water; Danaher and my wild card, Triumph Financial.
Too bad I red-flagged Dutch Bros, because it’s up 113%. It remains on the list, as do the eight others that – as of Friday – have moved higher. (Win some, lose some – and quite a few are moving targets swinging between red and green.)
On the other hand, even though Hims & Hers is up around 50% and recently added Soundhound AI around 45% – both deserve to be there. And if I were in the predictions business, I’d say that both will be considerably lower before things settle out. High, high HIGH risk on both.
Common Sense
Inherent in all of this is common sense, and if you missed my piece on newsletter writer Bob Howard, who proudly operates from “down here in the Ozarks,” it’ll go down as one of my all-time favorites…
Equally fun and full of common sense is my amalgamation of my friend Ed Borgato’s social media quips on the topic of investing…
Feel free to share those with your friends.
In the meantime, all of this was a long-winded way to say: I’m outta here until the New Year… unless, of course, something comes along that simply can’t wait.
As always, thanks for stopping by and if you haven’t already, consider becoming a premium subscriber. You can also…
Once again, thanks for supporting Herb on the Street / Red Flag Alerts.
Happy Holidays!
Herb
P.S.: Premium subscribers, as promised, here’s the full Red Flag Alerts list as of Friday…